However, hard disk failure is MUCH more based on chance than a finite amount of time, as they will fail, but it could be hours or decades.
Depends on how you look at it. As a probability function, based on the parameters build quality and load, the probability is very deterministic. So much in fact, that in a server environment where disks are put in RAID arrays, and for that reason have very similar loads, you can be almost sure that if one disk in a pair fails, the other one will fail too, within a month or two.
But seen from the perspective that you have a disk that you don't know how it's been used, if someone dropped the whole computer in the floor etc., you obviously have no clue as to the remaining lifetime.
Any flash memory you have will be discarded or lost or replaced long before it hits its write limit, and even then your data will still be readable/attainable.
Depends on what you do with it. If you for example install Windows on it, the wear will increase a whole lot. If you use it for an Amiga, you're probably safe.
Found this. I think I'll be safe with SanDisk cards.
OH! I didn't realize there's a PCMCIA slot on the Amiga. Now I see why you would want to buy that adapter.